The prints that move the tape.
CPI, NFP, FOMC, GDP, PMI and the rest. Sorted by time, color-coded by impact, with consensus and prior on every event.
How to read this calendar
Every release carries three numbers: the consensus, the prior, and — once published — the actual. Consensus is what economists expected, prior is last period's reading, and actual is what came out. The market reaction is driven almost entirely by the gap between actual and consensus, not by whether the number was good or bad in absolute terms.
Events are tagged by impact tier. High-tier prints — CPI, non-farm payrolls, FOMC decisions — reliably move rates, the dollar and index futures within seconds. Lower-tier releases usually pass without a visible reaction unless they contradict something the market had already concluded. The tier is about the size of the typical reaction, not the economic importance of the data.
What the major prints actually measure
CPI measures consumer price inflation. Markets watch core CPI — which strips out food and energy — more closely than the headline, because volatile components obscure the underlying trend the central bank is actually responding to. Non-farm payrolls reports monthly US job creation alongside the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings; the wage figure often matters more than the job count, because wages feed back into inflation.
FOMC decisions set the US policy rate. The decision itself is usually well anticipated, so the reaction comes from the statement language, the dot plot and the press conference rather than the number. GDP measures total output and is released in successive estimates that get revised, which makes it a confirming indicator rather than a leading one. PMI surveys ask purchasing managers about current conditions, with 50 as the line between expansion and contraction — they arrive early and are watched as a forward signal.
A revision to a previous month can move markets as much as the current reading. A strong payrolls number alongside a large downward revision to the prior two months is a weaker report than the headline suggests, and the initial algorithmic reaction often gets this backwards before the market corrects.